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In 1979, as part and parcel of a massive effort to lift the country out of poverty, China’s

leaders launched the one-child policy. Ultra-sound B machines (for prenatal screening) and

induced abortions came to feature prominently in the arsenal employed to reduce the number

and improve the quality of births (Zeng et al. (1993)). As is widely known by now, to many

Chinese, quality rhymes with son (Zeng et al. (1993); Chu (2001); PRC (2002); Yang &

Chen (2004); Das Gupta (2005)).1 In 2005, the sex ratio at birth exceeded 120 boys per 100

girls, implying a one-million surplus of boys in that cohort alone.

These developments have been a source of concern for a number of reasons. Notably, the

prospect of hordes of young men with little or no possibility of marriage looms large (e.g.,

Hudson & Den Boer (2004)). Between 1988 and 2004, the sex ratio (men to women) for the

16-25 year old cohort went from 1.053 to 1.095 (see Figure 1), implying an almost doubling

of “surplus” men. And judging by the 2005 by-census (Li (2007)), this trend will continue

until at least 2020.

The last decades also saw a dramatic increase in crime. Between 1988 and 2004, criminal

offenses rose at an annual rate of 13.6% (Hu (2006)), and arrest rates were up by 82.4%

(Figure 2), albeit from a low level.2 Breakdowns by age and gender are limited, but in

2000, 90% of all arrestees were men (Law Yearbook of China (2001)); and the overwhelming

1This is evident in a Chinese saying “Raising a daughter is like watering a plant in another man’s garden.”

An old Cantonese saying is “A daughter is a thief.”

2Crime rates are still low in international comparison.

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